- models in the age of data
- why we need many models
- wisdom hierarchy
- book summary/outline
- model uses (7)
REDCAPE (reason, explain, design, communicate, act, predict & explore)
- many models as independent lies
- condorcet jury theorem
- diversity prediction theorem
- categorization models
- one big model & granularity
- R^2: pct of variance
- model error decomposition theorem
- one-to-many
- one-to-many: higher powers (X^N)
- bagging
- the challenge
- rational-actor models
- rational-actor consumption model
- arguments for rational choice
- psych biases
- prospect theory example
- rule-based models
- el farol model: adaptive rules
- cognitive closure, a big question, & many models
- the lucas critique
- structure
- central limit theorem
- square root rules
- testing significance
- six sigma
- lognormal distributions (multiplying shocks)
- summary
- structure
- distributions
- power law
- zipf's law
- models & power laws
- preferential attachments
- forest fire model (self-organized criticality)
- implications
- equity
- catastrophies
- volatility
- a long-tail world
- search & opportunity
- definition
- sign, significance, magnitude
- correlation vs causation
- multivariable LMs
- success equation
- multivariable regression
- big coefficients & new realities
- binary classifications
- linear classification
- nonlinear classification
- forests of decision trees
- convexity
- exponential growth
- rule of 72
- half-life
- concave functions
- economic growth
- cobb-douglas model
- simple growth
- solow (simplified) growth
- why nations succeed & fail
- japanese chinese economic dominance
- it's a nonlinear world
- cooperative games
- shapley values (SVs)
- axiomatic basis for SVs
- SVs & alternate uses test
- shapley-shubik index
- summary
- structure
- statistics (degree, length, betweenness, clustering)
- common structures
- monte carlo method - random nets
- network formation: logic
- why networks matter
- six degrees of separation
- robustness
- summary
- broadcast model
- broadcast model : data fitting
- diffusion model
- bass model
- SIR model
- R0 (basic reproduction number)
- R0, superspreaders & degree squaring
- one-to-many
- information entropy
- axiomatic foundations
- using entropy to distinguish outcome classes
- max entropy & distributional assumptions
- max entropy distributions
uniform, exponential, normal
- positive & normative implications
- bernoulli urn model
- simple RW
- using RWs to estimate network size
- RWs & efficient markets
- polya process
- balancing process
- path dependence or tipping point
- further applications
- value-at-risk & volatility
- local majority model
- pure coordination game
- paradox of coordination
- game of life
- summary
- lyapunov functions
- race to the bottom game
- equilibrium in local majority model
- self-organization: new york & disney world
- pure exchange commodities
- models without lyapunov functions
- summary
- two examples
- perron-frobenius theorem
- sales-durability paradox
- markov: one-to-many
- summary
- system dynamics model components
sources, sinks, stocks, flows
- predator-prey model
- lotka-volterra model
- using SDMs to guide action
- WORLD3 model
- summary
- granovetter's riot model
- riot model
- market creation & double riots
- two models of segregation
- schelling's party model
- threshold models | negative feedbacks
- ping-pong model
- summary: model granularity
- algorithmic riots
- spatial competition model
- increasing #attributes
- downsian model of spatial competition
- status quo effects, agenda control, veto players
- hedonic competition
- hybrid model of product competition
- summary
- normal-form zero-sum games
- sequential games
- continuous action games
- effort game
- summary
- prisoner's dilemma
- cooperation thru repetition & reputation
- connectedness & reputation
- cooperation among rule-playing behaviors
- cooperative action model
- clustering bootstraps cooperation
- group selection
- summary
- intro
- public goods
- altruists
- congestion
- multiple congestible goods
- renewable resource extraction
- solved & unsolved CA problems
- mount-reiter diagram
environment, outcomes, actions, behavioral rules, outcome functions, social choice correspondence
- pareto efficiency
- majority rule & kingmaker mechanism
- three auctions
ascending-bid, second-price, first-price
- revenue equivalence
- public project decision mechanisms
- majority-vote equal sharing
- pivot mechanism
- summary
- discrete signals
- continuous signals
- continuous signals: separation
- uses & values
- summary
- individual learning: reinforcement learning (RL)
- social learning: replicator dynamics
- learning in games
- generous | spiteful game
- spiteful man | magic lamp
- combining models
- culture trumps strategy?
- bernoulli bandit problems
- bernoulli bandit problems (multiarmed)
- gittins index
- summary
- fitness landscape
- rugged landscapes
- NK model
- ruggedness & dancing landscapes
- do we patent knowledge?
- many models: opioid epidemic
- a model of opioid approval
- transition-to-addiction model
- paths to heroin addiction
- many models: covid pandemic
- fatality rate model
- IHME model
- flattening|unflattening the curve
- SIR with latency & severity (eisenberg)
- imperial college microsimulation model
- many models of inequality
- technology & human capital model
- positive feedbacks to talent
- ceo political capture
- rent-from-capital model (piketty)
- assortive mating
- intergenerational income (wealth) dynamics
- persistent inequality (durlauf)
- into the world