economics

136 bookmarks · page 1 of 3
2026-09-18 · wattfactory.substack.com

The Variety Trap

Why Margins Collapse Where Product Variety Explodes, And How Assembly Can Win Them Back

In much of the West, the importance of these close relationships was lost, with competitive bidding and more transactional relationships becoming the norm.
In this model, vertical integration is not about owning everything. It is about owning the layers of the stack where outsourcing would slow learning, limit final integration or affect product performance.
2026-09-15 · visualcapitalist.com

Ranked: Central Bank Assets as a Share of GDP by Country

See which countries have the largest central bank assets relative to GDP, led by Hong Kong at 130%.

Note: I'll pull up the article for you. Here's a summary of **Ranked: Central Bank Assets as a Share of GDP by Country**: ### Main takeaway Central bank balance sheets grew sharply after the 2008 financial crisis as authorities responded to successive economic shocks. This piece ranks 20 major economies and financial centers by central bank assets as a share of GDP, using the latest Q1/Q2 2026 data…

2026-08-21 · catalystneuro.com

What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x — CatalystNeuro

A given level of LLM intelligence costs about a thirtieth of what it did a year ago, and the rate of decline is accelerating. Using Artificial Analysis's measured cost per task, this post traces the falling price of each capability level, explains why cheaper intelligence leads…

A great deal of useful work does not require the smartest model available, but a model that is good enough, applied many thousands of times
At today’s prices a full pass over the corpus costs a little over a hundred dollars with a model whose capability was at the frontier in the spring. At the prices of this past March, the same pass with the same level of capability would have cost several thousand dollars, and a year ago that…
2026-08-14 · semafor.com

View: Big tech meets Milton Friedman

Big Tech is working its way through all four stages of a money-spending matrix legendary economist Milton Friedman outlined.

Milton Friedman, the legendary economist, laid out a simple matrix. Spend your own money on yourself and you’re disciplined on cost (it’s your money) and clear on value (you know what you want.). That’s an efficient economy, though not a very vibrant one. Spend your own money on someone else and…
big tech companies are spending other people’s money on other people.
2026-07-20 · commoncog.com

How Moats are Built

Building a moat is the difference between having fun with business, vs eating glass all day, every day, for years. This is how moats are actually built.

It’s also true that Power is much easier to identify than it is to build.
Bandag
2026-05-22 · thetwocents.substack.com

What's the Sticker Price of Exorbitant Privilege?

If you buy into this Pflueger/Yared perspective, then the price of exorbitant privilege is outspending your military adversaries. And the US has outspent other advanced economies by a large margin when you express defense spending as a fraction of GDP. I took its NATO partners…

2026-05-08 · asteriskmag.com

Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?

We all know they’re casinos. It’s time to look at the data behind the froth.

The vast majority of these bets are not on questions that might produce useful information. Roughly 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume (dollars exchanging hands between bettors) is from sports betting, making Kalshi effectively a sports gambling website with a small prediction market attached. I find…
I’ve found that the benefits of prediction markets fall into five different categories.